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kaladorm

Puzzle Time - Engineers vs FIsh

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It's 10-8 to Engineers, and Fish get to play first. If the Fisherman don't score they almost certainly lose the game to a dead Shark or a taken-out Greyscales. You are the engineers player. Greyscales declares a charge against Colossus, what do you do, and why?

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Engineers are screwed.

Either You declare CA and pray Greyscales doesn't wrap (9 dice vs 2+/2 and 5 long playbook so 54% for momentous dodge + ball is gone) and then he might just dodge out of melee, "where'd they go" and shoot with bonus time.

If You go for defensive stance there is 65% 'balls gone' lands, old man can attack once more for << and shoots but without bonus time. Either way - pray to RNGesus and cross Your fingers as there is very little You can do at this point.

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1 hour ago, el009 said:

Engineers are screwed.

Either You declare CA and pray Greyscales doesn't wrap (9 dice vs 2+/2 and 5 long playbook so 54% for momentous dodge + ball is gone) and then he might just dodge out of melee, "where'd they go" and shoot with bonus time.

If You go for defensive stance there is 65% 'balls gone' lands, old man can attack once more for << and shoots but without bonus time. Either way - pray to RNGesus and cross Your fingers as there is very little You can do at this point.

Difficult with the lack of distances but it looks like Greyscales can't charge in such a way to be outside of 1" of the big guy, as such CA is your better option as he's not wrapping to WtG. Tackle the ball back and he's not got an option of shooting.

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Yeah, declare CA. I don’t think Greyscales is in range of anyone to pass, so he’s going to win the ball, and either punt it into open space. Or try a shot on goal. If he waits to shoot, Colossus will win the ball back, and greyscales is unlikely to get it back. 

After that, Greyscales is getting taken out by Colossus, with Hoist waiting in case he’s needed. 

 

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I'd say he's able to do it if he can wrap, Fish have no other choice at this point, either they win in this activation or lose the match.

They could even take more direct route, charging between hoist and colossus as parting blow from hoist is irrelevant at this point. This way Greyscales can 100% pull it off if he wraps.

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I think the Fish player is praying to the gods on this one - 54% to dodge out if they CA, 65% if the Def stance. Not great odds...

It's a coin flip victory either way.

 

Now of course if they can play a Game Plan card, the Fish player absolutely plays Grudge Match or Go For the Knees...

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16 minutes ago, EpicChris said:

I think the Fish player is praying to the gods on this one - 54% to dodge out if they CA, 65% if the Def stance. Not great odds...

It's a coin flip victory either way.

 

Now of course if they can play a Game Plan card, the Fish player absolutely plays Grudge Match or Go For the Knees...

There is also ~`19% chcance for Colossus to miss his tackle after GS failes to wrap. That puts fish at a little above 60% chance to win and choice made by Cogs is a minor change in probablity, less than 5%.

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After discussing this with my local meta, I think the answer is that Colossus only counters.

A 9-dice Greyscales charge, even if he hits on all 9 dice, still only means 7 successes. So they take the momentous Ball's Gone and then they can choose to take the mom dodge or non-mom double-dodge, depending on WHERE the charge ends. 

Yes, Greyscales can just dodge away from Colossus' melee zone and he'll likely NEED to... I think this whole thing literally depends on whether or not Greyscales can hit that wrap.

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So I think I am saying the same thing but it seems that with the charge looking for "Ball's Gone!" then a "Where'd they Go?" and finally the shot there is little to do.  

The thing I would do is have Colossus go for the CA and take the KD.  Again I don't know dice odds that well, but at least taking the KD vs the tackle Grayscales can't use that extra influence to make a second attack for the proper positioning and he becomes easier to stomp on.     

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@kaladorm love this thread! Can we make Puzzle Time a regular feature?

My take.

Def stance or not, Greyscales is getting the ball, so Colossus has to CA.

Greyscales will use MOM Ball's Gone (T is not effective due to close control) 

If Greyscales wrapped and escaped Melee - Engineers are screwed

If Greyscales wrapped but is still engaged:

If Colossus counters with KD, the ball scatters. From here Greyscales must use 1 MOM to stand up and has 2 INF/1 MOM left. The only way Fish win is if the ball scatters close enough that WTG is enough movement to snap the ball and get into shooting range. On the other hand, Colossus could counter with T. In this case Greyscales can Bonus Time an attack to hit Ball's gone (74%), WTG and shoot with Bonus time. KD is a better option for Colossus here I think, but it's difficult to quantify how likely the scatter is to put the ball far enough away from Greyscales and/or the goal to deny the Fish goal.

If Greyscales did not wrap: 

A KD from Colossus is really bad news for Greyscales because he needs to collect the free ball, generate 1 MOM, get into range and shoot with only 2 INF (i.e. he has to snap the ball and get into range with a MOM <). A T from Colossus in this case means Greyscales can go for Ball's Gone with Bonus time, then WTG and shoot. Again, I think KD looks better for Colossus.

 

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Let's go through some of the probabilities:

No Def stance:  Tac9 v 2/2, 54% chance to score 8 successes, yields 6 results, which is a wrap, and the Fish player goes with Ball's Gone & 1" dodge for 2 MOM and moves out of Colossus 2" melee, which means no counter attack.  Fish player then does WTG for 4" dodge and takes the shot with Bonus Time.  In this scenario, The Engineers are hoping that the Fish only score 7 successes or less so that they can counter attack to get the KD or KD >.

With Def Stance:  Tac9 v 3/2, 65% chance to score 6 successes, yields 4 results, which is enough for a Ball's Gone result.  With 2 INF left, the Fish player can then spend 1 INF for WTG and 1 for the shot, having generated 1 MOM for Ball's Gone.  In this scenario, The Engineers are hoping that the Fish only score 5 successes or less so that Greyscales cannot get the ball with the charge, forcing Greyscales to take a second attack, which means that Greyscales cannot get a Ball's Gone result, and the Tackle result is non-MOM, unless he does a Bonus Time and he scores 6 successes to get the ball along with 1 MOM (33% chance of success)

If the Engineers only have 1 MOM, they are in a bad spot.  I think they are forced to go with the counter attack, and hope Greyscales does not wrap, so that they can counter attack off and then get the knockdown result (81% for a KD, and 50% for a KD >), which would mess up the goal run.  

 

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Bit of a deviation, as per the "Puzzle" it is declared that Greyscales is charging into Colussus... 

but does anyone see any other ways to 'salvage' the game for the Fish?...

at first I was thinking if you can get Shark away from Ballista and heal himself up (assume some momentum or a successful swing on Ballista), that the terrain might save him (Ballista can't charge and maybe Shark can get to the fast ground)... 

Now, if Hoist isn't already Tooled Up by Ratchet, then he shouldn't be able to kill Greyscales with Sucker Punch x 2...  And Colossus isn't guaranteed to kill Greyscales on the Charge either... so not sure what Engineer's next activation should be... I guess Ballista could walk over and try to Dead Bolt Greyscales or Sakana to try to take them out of the equation and but then he's giving the fish another chance to do something... 

Which then means Siren 'might' be close enough to jog up and Seduce Colossus to get the ball away from him or at least Lure him away from Greyscales... so that changes things up a bit, no?...

So is the Charge with Greyscales the right move if you are Fish?  Or if you thought the chances of getting in and out of melee with Colossus was too risky, what else might you try?

Or really, do you just have to do the Greyscales Charge and hope for some okay dice because you see nothing else or you are down on clock or can't save Shark... 

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