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3 hours ago, Adran said:

Hoping this was sarcastic but just in case...:

Rolling 2 dice has 36 different outcomes.

there are 12   9 outcomes that have both dice on 4 or higher. There are 24 27 outcomes where you have 1 or lower 4s rolled, so 0 net hits after the armour. That is a 1/3  1/4 chance of getting 1 hit against a 4/1 model with a 2 die attack.

Ediitd after EL009 correctly pointed out I have failed to count to 9

If you want I can get into more complex statistics. So we all agree that dice odds are usually 50/50. You roll the dice and you either succeed or not suceed. 1/2 outcomes=50%

 

Now let's branch out to more complex dice math. Sometimes you "might" get what you need, but sometime you "might not." Ok, pretty heady stuff, lets break it down. So we keep the 50/50, yes/no result. Now factor in the "mights." Yes/no/might/might not or 1/4=25%. But "Dont the might and yes stack?" I hear you ask. The answer is sometimes. Factoring that; A might success is like a yes success but a yes success might not succeed. Follow? So factoring the mights with yes we get; yes+might-no/might not which is roughly 34% or 33.33333 repeating obviously. 

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I was really uninterested in Ulfr before I ever tried him, the internet gives him a lot of stick. After 20+ games with him in a Skatha line up, he has got a goal in like,, 18 of those games? He's fantastic for a turn one goal with BotMG. Where'd you go is probably one of the best CP in the game, while his design isn't ideal and Blood Scent is more a trap then a thing I've found him super valuable in the Skatha line up for a turn one goal, or hanging on a flank waiting to receive a ball threatening a trivial snapback goal. 

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I've given ulfr a lot of flak, but the more games I play with him the more I appreciate ForestRambo's post. 

He gets a goal, or directly enables one in almost every game. For me he does this by being in a very narrow area of the pitch (8"-10" out from the centre, away from the enemy's beaters) and stealing the ball for a snap back after either team's goal kick. 

I still don't rate him for the 1st turn goal due to how defenceless he is, but there is still a lot of room to grow so maybe I will come round to that too.

Very interested to see what sfg do for him in s4. Maybe it will be less work for them than I thought. Ulfr back in my 10.

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Meh, he's slow, INF intensive and fights his own design. All the things you have above could be done by Egret for less INF, whom I actually like and contributes wherever on the pitch she is and she has ARM. But to each their own.

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5 hours ago, EpicChris said:

he's slow, INF intensive and fights his own design

All of this is true. However, what matters is whether it is significant, and as I slowly grow as a player I'm starting to find more occasions when it isn't.

5 hours ago, EpicChris said:

All the things you have above could be done by Egret

I used to think so too, I like Egret and she has been Ulfr's prime competitor, but when I find him doing things she can't, or at least anywhere near as reliably, I have to own up.

I'm talking from a Skatha perspective, I don't see Ulfr's relevance with Theron. I don't expect anything I write here to be revolutionary to anyone, but its an interesting exercise.

WTG  allows him to get in, out, or through engagements without the inf investment and dice roles that Egret's swift strikes would need. Her BTTS is fantastic defensively and for setting up position for later, but it doesn't assist output during her activation. This is important for getting the ball and going for goal mid-turn. 

Lone hunter gives him the tac to at least hit the tackle (and the second one after counter/close control/glut mass etc.), and ideally the mom tackle dodge. Skatha's team is pathetic in a scrum, most models want to start and end their activations not engaged and keep the team spread. Those that don't (e.g. vHearne) tend to struggle because they inevitably get no support. When I feel I'm playing the team well, they are spread and Ulfr gets more opportunity for lone hunter, getting an equivalent tac boost with gang ups usually means the formation is in trouble. Its a goofy rule, but sort of fun.

Ambush is situational, but its a situation that is worth engineering. If the enemy has the ball, focus on winning the mom race and getting ulfr into position for next turn. The issue is that Skatha is usually quite mom starved, the new gameplan card system helps out a bit, but no one is pretending this is easy. Going with Ulfr with the initiative allows more efficient judgement of his inf requirement, and the enemy can't defensive stance a 1st activation charge so the tackle is likely and you can chase the goal (which should be #2). From there you have the full turn to pressure the ball with the rest of the team. 

Egret is slightly less fragile with her 4/1 and BTTS, a better snap shot turret (because screw bloodscent), and much better at putting out damage enabling her to contribute from range. However, in a Skatha team she is either going for the ball and dying as much as Ulfr or doing the pewpew (which Skatha's low damage team really doesn't capitalise on and so rarely matters) for the average cost of 2 inf each turn. Ulfr threats the ball better and gets 4 inf on the one turn of glory and nothing the rest of the time. Ulfr has potentially larger impact on games for me.

As you say @EpicChris each to their own, but I'd encourage people to give Ulfr another look.

 

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