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I keep looking at Ulfr and I want to like him more than I do.  It feels like if he had a Mom 1 or a 1+dodge in the first column he would be so much better.  If he has the ball and needs momentum, he needs to make multiple attacks to gain momentum, increase the kick and then gain separation.

Am I missing something?

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Blood Scent is nice if you can get it, but as you observe Ulfr often comes up about one influence short of what he'd like.  The hunters are uniquely positioned to support him in ways that other teams can't, however by generating mom at range and allowing Ulfr to use it to power Where'd They Go or not have to generate his own for his goal shot.  I recommend you try to avoid needing Blood Scent if you can, since even a 2 die kick isn't terrible.

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I try not to include blood scent in his goal threat as, as i always aim for his MoM T < , to get the ball , then a where they go to get up to goal. I only aim for blood scent when i want to Take the ball and kick it to someone, he just doesnt have enough resources to do everything. Which is a good thing.

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I have to say I have played him twice now and find the same thing, I have run him with Theron and Skatha, noth games I used Egret as well and I just find he is so INF hungry if I want him to do anything. I almost feel i am better off just dumping him for Jaecar....

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Re-reading the Steamforged blog post regarding Ulfr, he is designed to wrap his playbook to make him shine. His playbook is still a bit wonky, but I enjoy playing him. 

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1 hour ago, Anudem said:

Re-reading the Steamforged blog post regarding Ulfr, he is designed to wrap his playbook to make him shine. His playbook is still a bit wonky, but I enjoy playing him. 

I recall a lot of criticism of the math in that blog post.  IMO they should shorten his playbook by a column if they really want him to wrap on the charge as part of his core functionality.

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1 hour ago, MechMage said:

I recall a lot of criticism of the math in that blog post.  IMO they should shorten his playbook by a column if they really want him to wrap on the charge as part of his core functionality.

That is correct. On a standard charge with 10 dice, Ulfr is going to wrap with six hits 25% of the time against a 4/1 model. If the 3 double dodge in the 5th column was momentus it would be so much easier to play Ulfr. Even with an amazing wrap it's hard to utilize Blood Scent on a goal run. I do like to trigger Blood Scent for snap shots however. 

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On a charge against a lone target (Ulfr gets his bonus TAC), his chances to wrap are:

  • 3+/0 > 78.7%
  • 3+/1 > 55.9%
  • 4+/0 > 37.7%
  • 4+/1 > 17.2%
  • 5+/0 > 7.7%

Egret charging against the same target (alone, no gang-ups), has the following chances to wrap:

  • 3+/0 > 74.1%
  • 3+/1 > 46.8%
  • 4+/0 > 36.3%
  • 4+/1 > 14.5%
  • 5+/0 > 8.8%

Even under his optimal circumstances, Ulfr is only marginally better at wrapping than Egret. If there is a single gang-up, the math goes a long way in her favor (She goes up a TAC, he goes down one). Their stipulation that he is some kind of wrap wizard is laughably bad.

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What app do you use for dice odds? I use the Tooled Up app, which shows a wrap of 6 hits occurring at roughly 25% against a 4/1 model with Ulfr. I want to use the most accurate dice odds app when playing. 

 

I played two game with Ulfr today into Midas' Alcs, with him scoring three goals between the two games. His Where'd They Go into Midas and Compound is immensely useful to getting around unpredictable movement and counter charge. I was unable to trigger Blood Scent during either game, but his momentus tackle dodge was a game changer. Wrapping with him is quite a pain, but for a striker he hits pretty decent when pressed.

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32 minutes ago, Anudem said:

What app do you use for dice odds? I use the Tooled Up app, which shows a wrap of 6 hits occurring at roughly 25% against a 4/1 model with Ulfr. I want to use the most accurate dice odds app when playing. 

 

I played two game with Ulfr today into Midas' Alcs, with him scoring three goals between the two games. His Where'd They Go into Midas and Compound is immensely useful to getting around unpredictable movement and counter charge. I was unable to trigger Blood Scent during either game, but his momentus tackle dodge was a game changer. Wrapping with him is quite a pain, but for a striker he hits pretty decent when pressed.

I'm not sure how you got those odds; I use Tooled up and get 17.18% for Ulfr charging a 4/1+ model.  Bear in mind he's tac 4 and lone hunter gives him +2, with +4 for charging for a total of 10 dice needing 7 hits before armor to wrap to the first column.

For all of Ulfr's faults, Where'd They Go is still a very powerful play.

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6 hours ago, MechMage said:

I'm not sure how you got those odds; I use Tooled up and get 17.18% for Ulfr charging a 4/1+ model.  Bear in mind he's tac 4 and lone hunter gives him +2, with +4 for charging for a total of 10 dice needing 7 hits before armor to wrap to the first column.

For all of Ulfr's faults, Where'd They Go is still a very powerful play.

Now I see it. Are you using the hits function? Set that to -1 to factor in armor. 

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Ulfr isn't 'bad' per se - his toolkit is quite good. He's just frustrating because to make him work at peak efficiency is basically impossible. His 1" melee with no Close Control means if he attacks players he has to take < or risk a T which ends his goal run. Sure he 'can' wrap but Blood Scent is virtually impossible to trigger and it means he's yet another 3/6 Kick model in Hunters. If he was 3/8 with Blood Scent, or had 4 Columns or didn't have the silly Lone Hunter rule (but just +2 TAC) then sure, he'd be good. But he suffers from the Season 2 design philosophy of Hunters having to have limits on their power (so a good model gets saddled with something bad to make up for it). Which going by Farmers and Blacksmiths is a philosophy they have thrown out. It's frankly annoying. If Hunters were designed now he'd probably be amazing.

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6 hours ago, Anudem said:

Now I see it. Are you using the hits function? Set that to -1 to factor in armor. 

The -1 to hits doesn't seem to really reflect how armor would work. Like, I tried testing with a 2 die pool (to make the mental math easy), and if it's against a 4/1 model, setting it to Target 4 Hits -1 and it says you have a 50% chance of no hits and 50% chance of one hit (which no, you don't have a 50% chance to roll 2 4+'s). Not sure what it's trying to do, but I wouldn't trust anything with the -hits. 

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On 8/22/2017 at 10:35 PM, Anudem said:

What app do you use for dice odds? I use the Tooled Up app, which shows a wrap of 6 hits occurring at roughly 25% against a 4/1 model with Ulfr. I want to use the most accurate dice odds app when playing.

I use my own. I don't have an Android device, so I'm not familiar with how Tooled Up works :/

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I just did the maths myself and I ended up with 17.12062% chance to role 7 4or higher on 10 dice. (which he would get his 6 net hits after armour)

(The below method will only work for df 4, because it is based on equal chances of success and failure, but its relatively easy to explain)

Use the 11th line of Pascal's triangle ( which goes 1, 10, 45, 120, 210, 256, 210, 120, 45, 10, 1) You have a 1 in 1028 (the sum of all the possibilities) chance of getting 10 hits,  a 10/1028 chance of getting exactly 9 hit, a 45/1028 chance of getting exactly 8 hits and a 120/1028 chance of getting exactly 7 hits.

Add those together and you have a 176/1028 chance to get 7 or more hits.

so 176/1028*100 to make it a percentage is 17.12062%

You use the 11th line because there are 11 possible outcomes from 10 hits to 0 hits

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On 8/23/2017 at 1:19 PM, CaptCommy said:

The -1 to hits doesn't seem to really reflect how armor would work. Like, I tried testing with a 2 die pool (to make the mental math easy), and if it's against a 4/1 model, setting it to Target 4 Hits -1 and it says you have a 50% chance of no hits and 50% chance of one hit (which no, you don't have a 50% chance to roll 2 4+'s). Not sure what it's trying to do, but I wouldn't trust anything with the -hits. 

Well 50% seems right, as its really a question of whether you'll succeed or not. 50% yes and 50% no. Simple stats. 

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On ‎25‎/‎08‎/‎2017 at 5:55 PM, Anudem said:

Well 50% seems right, as its really a question of whether you'll succeed or not. 50% yes and 50% no. Simple stats. 

Hoping this was sarcastic but just in case...:

Rolling 2 dice has 36 different outcomes.

there are 12   9 outcomes that have both dice on 4 or higher. There are 24 27 outcomes where you have 1 or lower 4s rolled, so 0 net hits after the armour. That is a 1/3  1/4 chance of getting 1 hit against a 4/1 model with a 2 die attack.

Ediitd after EL009 correctly pointed out I have failed to count to 9

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59 minutes ago, Adran said:

Hoping this was sarcastic but just in case...:

Rolling 2 dice has 36 different outcomes.

there are 12 outcomes that have both dice on 4 or higher. There are 24 outcomes where you have 1 or lower 4s rolled, so 0 net hits after the armour. That is a 1/3 chance of getting 1 hit against a 4/1 model with a 2 die attack.

It's 9 per 36, exactly 25%. You have also 50% for one hit reduced to 0 by armor and 25% for no hits at all.

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