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dwhite87

Explosive Brew: It's Friday or the Highway

New players often make the mistake of trying to build an all-out Killy team and bench Friday.

More experienced usually include Friday in the lineup but utilize her as strictly as a goal-scorer who can also reposition the cat.

Really experienced players utilize her goal scoring, cat calling and incredibly powerful ability to set up take-outs.

Here's an article illustrating how Friday makes take-outs so much easier. http://midwestwargaming.com/its-friday-or-the-highway/

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I've been trying out some really odd line ups lately, some of them without Friday.. and she's missed. So very versatile, people seem to forget that Dirty Knives is a ranged attack, and a charge on Boar early turn can leave Fillet dead in the water.

Don't forget she can call Scum and potentially engage the target before Tapper arrives, and if the target still isn't dead Scum can Shadow Like away to charge back in.

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19 hours ago, CurlyPaul said:

Don't forget she can call Scum and potentially engage the target before Tapper arrives, and if the target still isn't dead Scum can Shadow Like away to charge back in.

She doesn't have the influence for it?  Give the cat a swig of old' jakes and she'll put her claws into anything for you.  (I can show you the backscratches to prove it!)

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Nice work on the article. It doesn't really change your point but you're underestimating the chances of getting a KO in most of your cases because you're only looking at the chances of e.g mom3/mom3/nonmom2/nonmom2 rather than permutations of that.

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1 hour ago, Bob The Builder said:

She doesn't have the influence for it?  Give the cat a swig of old' jakes and she'll put her claws into anything for you.  (I can show you the backscratches to prove it!)

I love New Jake's, so much more versatility and fun. Yeah it gives the opponent chance to shut out the recipient, but surely that's a more interesting game than Tapper one turning anybody who comes near.

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1 hour ago, orange said:

Nice work on the article. It doesn't really change your point but you're underestimating the chances of getting a KO in most of your cases because you're only looking at the chances of e.g mom3/mom3/nonmom2/nonmom2 rather than permutations of that.

Thank you, could you elaborate how I'm understimating? I had to look up permutation it was a neat video.

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2 hours ago, doublecheese said:

Thank you, could you elaborate how I'm understimating? I had to look up permutation it was a neat video.

Sorry for explaining stuff that might be obvious and explaining it in a confusing way:

If you want to know the odds for say getting 2 heads, 2 tails from 4 coin flips you don't want to just look at the change of getting HHTT, but also all the other permutations (HTTH, HTHT, THHT, THTH, TTHH), so the chances of getting 2 heads, 2 tails (or exactly 2 4+ from 4 dice) is going to be 6 (i.e. the number of permutations of HHTT)/16 rather than the 1/16 you get from looking just at a single permutation. Numbers of permutations for other combinations are given by binomial coefficients to save working them all out.

For your calculations (let's call getting at least 3 damage D3 and at least 2 damage D) you want to look at the chances of getting any permutation of D3D3D2D2. This time it's not just a case of being able to add the (equal) probabilities of the 6 permutations - that would give a probability bigger than 1 anyway. That's because although for flipping a coin H and T are disjoint events meaning prob(permutation of HHTT) = prob(HHTT) + prob(HTTH) + ... etc = 6 . prob(HHTT), Dand Daren't disjoint events (if you're doing at least 3 damage you're definitely doing at least 2 damage) so prob(permutation of D3D3D2D2) isn't just the sum of the probabilities of each permutation. If you tried to just add prob(D3D3D2D2) + prob(D2D2D3D3) + etc you'd end up counting the case of getting at least 3 damage each time D3D3D3D6 times rather than just once.

There's also the chance even vs. Fillet that Tapper can pull off a wrap - at least 6 dice out of 8 hitting vs 4+ isn't *that* unlikely (well, it's 14.5%). To "seamlessly" move into an advert for something I did, I made a damage probability generator here to handle this type of calculation: https://qvadreme.github.io/stats-damage.html According to that the chance of Tapper with CA and bonus timing getting a TO on a KD Ox is actually 87%! With dirty knives it's 99.8%! Unfortunately as a tool it has a few flaws, like it doesn't do Intensify damage properly and doesn't allow for bonus timing dependent on previous results.

 

 

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7 hours ago, orange said:

Sorry for explaining stuff that might be obvious and explaining it in a confusing way:

If you want to know the odds for say getting 2 heads, 2 tails from 4 coin flips you don't want to just look at the change of getting HHTT, but also all the other permutations (HTTH, HTHT, THHT, THTH, TTHH), so the chances of getting 2 heads, 2 tails (or exactly 2 4+ from 4 dice) is going to be 6 (i.e. the number of permutations of HHTT)/16 rather than the 1/16 you get from looking just at a single permutation. Numbers of permutations for other combinations are given by binomial coefficients to save working them all out.

For your calculations (let's call getting at least 3 damage D3 and at least 2 damage D) you want to look at the chances of getting any permutation of D3D3D2D2. This time it's not just a case of being able to add the (equal) probabilities of the 6 permutations - that would give a probability bigger than 1 anyway. That's because although for flipping a coin H and T are disjoint events meaning prob(permutation of HHTT) = prob(HHTT) + prob(HTTH) + ... etc = 6 . prob(HHTT), Dand Daren't disjoint events (if you're doing at least 3 damage you're definitely doing at least 2 damage) so prob(permutation of D3D3D2D2) isn't just the sum of the probabilities of each permutation. If you tried to just add prob(D3D3D2D2) + prob(D2D2D3D3) + etc you'd end up counting the case of getting at least 3 damage each time D3D3D3D6 times rather than just once.

There's also the chance even vs. Fillet that Tapper can pull off a wrap - at least 6 dice out of 8 hitting vs 4+ isn't *that* unlikely (well, it's 14.5%). To "seamlessly" move into an advert for something I did, I made a damage probability generator here to handle this type of calculation: https://qvadreme.github.io/stats-damage.html According to that the chance of Tapper with CA and bonus timing getting a TO on a KD Ox is actually 87%! With dirty knives it's 99.8%! Unfortunately as a tool it has a few flaws, like it doesn't do Intensify damage properly and doesn't allow for bonus timing dependent on previous results.

 

 

 

Thanks for taking the time to put  a thorough response in. I'm still confused on how some of these numbers add up though, so if you don't mind spending more time to help that would be great. 

Let's take the example with Ox and Tapper. Tapper has spent the first two of his influence to knockdown and put up commanding aura. Atm we have 1 momentum to bonus time the next attack roll. There appears to be 40+ different combinations Tapper can generate to deal at least 19 damage in 4 attacks on Ox (2,1) with just commanding aura damage buff. Of those 40+ combinations only so many let you bonus time every damage roll. Four of these combinations only require 3 hits to deal 19 damage.Now I'm not sure how the extra attack affects percentage for KOing Ox, i.e. if my first two attacks deal 13-14 damage the probability to deal 6 damage in 2 attacks is 99.7%, but that sequence of events is 14.05% likely. The most likely scenario of taking Ox out on 4 attacks I found was 35.43%, though looking back if I bonus time the Commanding Aura roll I get the probability of knocking down and putting up commanding aura in two hits 81.36%, this gives me a net 26.87% of KOing Ox on 6 attacks, versus the 23.48%. What step am I missing in calculating these probabilities? 

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Really interesting topic but 10 inf to take out 1 player is really a heavy investment. And, like all character plays to be used on another player, it takes two activations and in between, Ox can move or receive a defense buff and Fillet can easily kill Friday during her activation.

 

Arnaud

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7 hours ago, Aranud said:

Really interesting topic but 10 inf to take out 1 player is really a heavy investment. And, like all character plays to be used on another player, it takes two activations and in between, Ox can move or receive a defense buff and Fillet can easily kill Friday during her activation.

 

Arnaud

Thanks for the read. True 10 influence is alot, but Tapper is in a unique position to go this route because of Old Jake. Also trying to dirty knife a 4 defense model is a 75% chance so you could feel comfortable just allocating two to Friday. I haven't checked the math but it seems Fillet killing a 5-1 Friday is unlikely, especially if we can defensive stance a charge. Very good point about two activations and your opponent being able to interupt you. That's a big reason why I try to limit synergies to a max of two activations, sure a tooled up commanding aura Hooper against a knocked down dirty knife model sounds amazing, but your opponent isn't going to let that happen.

Mike

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If Friday can dirty knives Fillet, Fillet can walk to Friday to attack without charging. Fillet is very lickely to kill a 4-1 Friday, much less a 5-1 one.

What are the math of a tooled up Tapper to KO Ox or Fillet ? Tooled up is only 1 inf and is sure to succeed.

 

Arnaud

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2 hours ago, Aranud said:

If Friday can dirty knives Fillet, Fillet can walk to Friday to attack without charging. Fillet is very lickely to kill a 4-1 Friday, much less a 5-1 one.

What are the math of a tooled up Tapper to KO Ox or Fillet ? Tooled up is only 1 inf and is sure to succeed.

 

Arnaud

For tapper to KO Ox with tooled up you are looking at ~60.5%. Now if you can start the fight with a momentum you've got a 49% to kd, bonus time commanding aura, and bonus time wrap giving you a 99% chance to deal 11 damage in 3 attacks.

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