Welcome to Steamforged Games Forums

Register now to gain access to all of our features. Once registered and logged in, you will be able to contribute to this site by submitting your own content or replying to existing content. You'll be able to customize your profile, receive reputation points as a reward for submitting content, while also communicating with other members via your own private inbox, plus much more! This message will be removed once you have signed in.

Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0
arabicjesus

Winning Ways for Your Guild Ball Plays

I started a blog a long time ago centered on the math of Guild Ball. I have written quite a number of articles at this point, but most have been about the Butcher's Guild. I am now branching out and have written an article about Bonesaw. It can be found here.

 

Feel free to browse the previous articles I have written or the articles by the other writers on the site. (Can be found in their various sections under Blogs.)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I still think the numbers for Football dervish aren't terrible when passing to silence with dirge or greede.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I got a goal via Football Dervish from a Cosset pass last week :)

(I was clocked out and clutching at straws and still lost the game but still cool to see... Especially since the only Meditated 3 dice kicks I've made have all failed :( )

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I got 1 the other night.  The 3 dice pass at the start is the lowest % of success in the whole chain.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 1/6/2017 at 5:46 AM, cacklad said:

... Especially since the only Meditated 3 dice kicks I've made have all failed :(

 

How many have you tried? Because it's improbable that you miss more than one every once in a while.

 

On 1/5/2017 at 4:42 PM, Mattyg2787 said:

I still think the numbers for Football dervish aren't terrible when passing to silence with dirge or greede.

That is the ideal situation. That gives an 82% chance of the ball getting back to Bonesaw. Getting a goal off of it has a total probability of 80% if you meditate the goal shot and 71% if you do not meditate it. But all that is assuming no dice are lost from anyone being engaged or passing over an enemy model.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For sure. 71/80% are decent odds, especially for what you gain out of it.  And the big point of failure (missed goal) is still about 87% without meditation. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's a valid strategy, just not more reliable than doing other things. For example, if any model in this is engaged it drastically reduces the probability of it succeeding. (75% of making the goal if the model passing back is 3 dice, which isn't bad, and 66% of making the goal if Bonesaw is the one engaged. That's starting to get into numbers I don't like.) It's probably more valid that I originally thought, but it still seems risky because of any part failing will fail the entire chain.

Futher example, compare failing one of these rolls with failing an attack roll. Failing one attack roll (let's say out of 3, the same number of rolls as this chain) probably isn't going to be as bad as missing one of the passes or the goal and putting the ball way out of position.

My point being that if you can Meditate and then shoot on goal straight up that is a much better plan than doing a football dervish first. Even if Bonesaw is engaged and losing dice he is better off meditating and shooting than trying for the football dervish to get him out of melee. The only time it should be used is if Bonesaw is already free of melee AND needs momentum to score AND the opponent has momentum AND easy accessible tackle on the model you have to attack for momentum, that you would dervish. That's a very specific situation.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, arabicjesus said:

New article about Cosset and all the damage she can do: here.

 

Thanks Sherlocko, I like writing about Guild Ball and I'm glad someone out there enjoys reading my words.

That puts into numbers what I expect to happen when she gets onto the table. I have not yet fielded Morts in Season III. (Too many other distractions!)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yay for not having Vileswarm. 

I'm struggling to find space for cosset and i refuse to use vgraves so Vileswarm has been in for me. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!


Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.


Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0