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Siberys

Pundits
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About Siberys

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  1. @Gauntlet - I assume you mean my first list (with Harry), aye? In each of those matchups, what do you expect your six'll look like? When do you pick whom, and who on the team is situational?
  2. I'm trying to suss out what my S3 Engineer's 10 will be and I'm having some trouble with it. Currently I'm thinking the following; Ballista, Pin Vice, [Mainspring | Mother], Locus, Compound, Hoist, Ratchet, Salvo, Velocity, Harry Captains: The big question I'd like to answer is "What pairings do I bring which captain to?" My current thoughts are as follows; Ballista - Brewers, Butchers, Morticians, Masons, Union; teams that want to scrum it, teams that are slow, and/or teams with low defenses Pin Vice - Alchemists, Engineers, Fishermans, Hunters; teams that are trying to play a faster goal-oriented game The Players: I like to work out one or two pre-set 6-player lists I can later tweak for certain match-ups. I'm currently thinking the "baselines" for each side are; - Ballista, *, Hoist, Ratchet, Salvo, Locus. This list is built to take advantage of MI, to severely punish whoever gets into a middle-board fight via a TU chain (Ratchet->Hoist->Ballista/Locus), and to get opportunistic goals - think a Corsair build that uses ranged CPs for damage instead of tarpitting. - Pin Vice, *, Hoist, Ratchet, Velocity, Compound. This list makes playing the ball game passively more costly while being good at it itself, and it can go for a kill if necessary. Here's where my problem with the Engineers comes through; I regularly want 7 players on my teams! Velocity for the first, and Harry for the second. I think the Ballista team can get away without Velocity, as Hoist and/or Ballista can definitely score if needed and this team is aiming after a 2-2. It's the Pin Vice team that's got me; maybe I should cut Ratchet for Harry, since I'd already have Deletion on PV and doubling up is probably overkill. That said, without Ratchet I lose Overclocked and some potential synergy with Mainspring if I go with it. I could also replace Salvo with Harry in the Ballista lineup, I guess, but then I'm right back at having a "spare" model. Which wouldn't be the end of the world, I'd just like to have a solid matchup to bring it into. Mascots: I like both Engineer's mascots - both are usually batteries, both can still contribute without Influence. Mother looks to contribute better when there's nothing for her to do, but if you need to strip the ball and make a pass Mainspring could do it on 1 INF while Mother would need 2. One possibility is I could cut Harry and run both mascots - Mother probably goes in Ballista and Mainspring in PV - but I'm not sure I like two-mascot lists. That'd end up with the following; Ballista, Pin Vice, Mainspring, Mother, Compound, Hoist, Locus, Ratchet, Salvo, Velocity ----- Have you guys got any advice for the lists I'm suggesting? In particular I'm not fully sold on Mainspring, Salvo, or Locus; the latter two look fun with MI but I'm afraid the Gunline list is a bit on the "cute" side, y'know? I could also see switching out Mainspring for Harry and defaulting to him over Ratchet in the PV list. EDIT: Oh, yeah, I wanted a section on other models; VVelocity: I could run her over OVel (and maybe switch Compound for Harry); she seems good to get return goals up and running. Not sure it's worth waiting for my opponent to score past me though. Colossus: I considered him over Locus, but man do I wish he still had Ramming Speed. He'd probably fit better in the PV lineup though and I really have no idea who I'd cut for Daddy Longlegs. Decimate: She was good for damage in S2, but we don't need the help quite so much any longer. Pass. Rage: Like Decimate, we don't have a momentous-damage-shaped-hole in the team any longer, plus his TU can't be applied outside of himself now. Pass. A&G: Avarisse's playbook and singled out we could get in-guild via Colossus, and we don't need the out-of-nowhere goal capability the way, say, Fish like to have. Pass.
  3. I've played enough games of Alchs that didn't feature Harry that I'm not certain it's him, or at the very least Midas and Vitriol are bigger contributors to the problem than Harry is.
  4. Tongs, Flux, or Flash maybe? Strop? I'd prefer to see that in Barber's, or Physician's if they made it (he'd be the guy with Tooled Up). File? EDIT: Oil or Whet. Or you could go and use words tied to what they make - Fuller, Gorget, Buckler, Greaves (a bit close to Graves, unfortunately), Pauldron, Hilt, Tang. There should be a guy named Pommel with a character play called End Him Rightly. Oh, and of course there's Smith. Or maybe Smitty.
  5. And Quench, their level-headed, matronly Master.
  6. You could replicate a liquid with a plastic pull-up tab.
  7. The captain probably doesn't have to be a Master, or maybe the captain is a "general" master that boosts any nearby apprentices?
  8. I'd normally suggest a tortoise or an armadillo, but those are already taken. A giant salamander with fire-related abilities could be cool. I could dig a cantankerous goat.
  9. I think that whether they are or not lovers, the others certainly think they are. Reference Esters' fluff entry; it wouldn't be a stretch to see them wandering off alone while they smile at each other and think there's summat goin' on.
  10. I wouldn't say "becoming", but rather "has been so far in S3"; "becoming" sorta implies things are getting worse, and I don't agree with that. The OPD probably brought down Fish a peg, and we'll just have to wait and see what sort of tweaks SFG drops in the next few months for Alchs and Hunters.
  11. I'd make that vs. Animal models personally. That does mean he wouldn't like Engineers and maybe Alchemists very much, but he'd be great tech vs Hunters, for whom up to half their team could be Animals.
  12. I ran a one-way ANOVA test comparing the teams played to number of wins. What this does is it tries to determine if any teams have means that are different from others. That may seem obvious, but we're talking "different" in a statistical sense, so the mean we get is actually a range in which we're 95% positive the actual mean falls. If those ranges overlap the mean of all of the data - in this case, 3.48 (It would be 3.5 but for some drops) - then none are statistically different enough to draw conclusions. To put it in proper terms; H0: The teams do not have differing means. H1: The teams do have differing means. Here's the output I got from Minitab; First off, note the P-value (the number under "P"). That represents our confidence that our hypothesis (H1) is correct. That's compared to an alpha, which in cases like this would probably be 0.05 = meaning we're confident our model explains at least 95% or more of the data. If our P is less than our A, we reject the null hypothesis (H0). P=0.005 < A=0.05, so we're strongly confident that there is a difference. Masons's mean-asterisk is pretty much right on the nose, and you can see only two teams do not intersect with that - Hunters and Alchemists (Engineers and Fish are close, though). That means there are three groups of Teams - Alchemists, Hunters, and Everyone Else. Alchemists are definitely above the mean, Hunters below. As before I want to stress the limits of my statistical analysis. First off, I played fast and loose - if I was writing a formal analysis I would have gone through a bunch of steps to ensure the data was properly distributed and so on. Here I just skipped straight to the meat. Second, I fear that the sample size is too small to really be drawing conclusions - especially in the case of, say, Masons. I think I'd need four or five times as much data to be sure it wasn't anomalous. Finally, this still doesn't account for player skill; the model is just trying to see if number of wins might be a function of team selection assuming all other variables are equal. I could maybe derive an individual player skill factor similar to what I did upthread and run a two-way anova, see if say skill+team could predict wins, or wins+skill could predict team... EDIT: As it turns out, since my "player skill rating" is derived from wins; essentially they're too similar to run a two-way ANOVA. You'd need something like a proper SR and we don't have one of those.
  13. The stats for those with 5 wins (down to 26th place) are as follows: Alchemists - 7 Brewers - 2 Butchers - 1 Engineers - 7 Fisherman - 3 Hunters - 1 Masons - 1 Morticians - 1 The Union - 3 I don't think there's much to be gleaned from that list other than Alchemists were considered meta and a lot of people decided to bring Engineers (whether for meta reasons like being tech vs Footballing teams, or just because people wanted to). EDIT: Specifically regarding comparing Brewers to teams that got one win at 5+; Butchers and Masons got their single wins at higher places than either Brewer player, while Morts and Hunters got theirs at lower places. Nobody was arguing that Hunters are better than Brewers, and Morticians have, according to the Vengeance data, probably the most "balanced" showing out of any of the Guilds, so I don't think the premise would really hold.
  14. Yeah, sounds to me like you're reading holdovers from S2.
  15. By the fluff for Stoker in the S3 book, it actually seems very unlikely; it was like the only thing from a Blacksmith's perspective (Anvil's) in the whole book, and he spent the whole thing going on and on about how no one in the Blacksmiths liked, respected, or trusted Stoker.