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orange

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  1. Explosive Brew: It's Friday or the Highway

    Sorry for explaining stuff that might be obvious and explaining it in a confusing way: If you want to know the odds for say getting 2 heads, 2 tails from 4 coin flips you don't want to just look at the change of getting HHTT, but also all the other permutations (HTTH, HTHT, THHT, THTH, TTHH), so the chances of getting 2 heads, 2 tails (or exactly 2 4+ from 4 dice) is going to be 6 (i.e. the number of permutations of HHTT)/16 rather than the 1/16 you get from looking just at a single permutation. Numbers of permutations for other combinations are given by binomial coefficients to save working them all out. For your calculations (let's call getting at least 3 damage D3 and at least 2 damage D2 ) you want to look at the chances of getting any permutation of D3D3D2D2. This time it's not just a case of being able to add the (equal) probabilities of the 6 permutations - that would give a probability bigger than 1 anyway. That's because although for flipping a coin H and T are disjoint events meaning prob(permutation of HHTT) = prob(HHTT) + prob(HTTH) + ... etc = 6 . prob(HHTT), D2 and D3 aren't disjoint events (if you're doing at least 3 damage you're definitely doing at least 2 damage) so prob(permutation of D3D3D2D2) isn't just the sum of the probabilities of each permutation. If you tried to just add prob(D3D3D2D2) + prob(D2D2D3D3) + etc you'd end up counting the case of getting at least 3 damage each time D3D3D3D3 6 times rather than just once. There's also the chance even vs. Fillet that Tapper can pull off a wrap - at least 6 dice out of 8 hitting vs 4+ isn't *that* unlikely (well, it's 14.5%). To "seamlessly" move into an advert for something I did, I made a damage probability generator here to handle this type of calculation: https://qvadreme.github.io/stats-damage.html According to that the chance of Tapper with CA and bonus timing getting a TO on a KD Ox is actually 87%! With dirty knives it's 99.8%! Unfortunately as a tool it has a few flaws, like it doesn't do Intensify damage properly and doesn't allow for bonus timing dependent on previous results.
  2. Explosive Brew: It's Friday or the Highway

    Nice work on the article. It doesn't really change your point but you're underestimating the chances of getting a KO in most of your cases because you're only looking at the chances of e.g mom3/mom3/nonmom2/nonmom2 rather than permutations of that.
  3. Sanchex Cup 3 Sign Ups!!!

    Name: orange Skype: cnurser Guild: Butchers Fillet, Princess, vOx, Harry, Meathook, vBrisket, oBrisket, Boiler, Tenderiser, Boar
  4. Sanchex Cup 3 Sign Ups!!!

    What's the position on farmers?
  5. Obulus vs summer

    It was in Aldershot (in the UK)
  6. Obulus vs summer

    I took Morticians along to A Midsummer Night's Scream yesterday for a 5-round event in pretty incredible heat. It was a really well done event (one highlight being the themed scenery!) and best of all I was guaranteed best in guild going into it... Here are some very brief reports - the heat means I've probably forgotten a few things, sorry if I got something wrong! R1 vs Charlie (Hunters)Obulus, Dirge, Casket, Ghast, Avarisse&Greede (A&G), oGraves vs Theron, Fahad, oHearne, Jaecar, Chaska, ZarolaI kicked off with Obulus and he passed the ball around a bit to Hearne, with Theron giving him Blessing and putting down the forest for him. Obulus stole the ball with Puppet Master and ran away a bit. Hearne managed some damage on Obulus with Skewered and hit someone for a bit of damage, but I had the ball reasonably safe so A&G could go in to punch Hearne a bit (I think?). This set up a Casket Time on Hearne, then I just played very negatively and picked off Hunters whilst killing the ball on Obulus. Casket got pushed off from a Chaska Boom Box / Quadruple Push combo, but I slowly ground out the takeouts to win.12-2 WIN (0 goals, 6 takeouts vs 0 goals, 1 takeout)R2 vs Greg (Fish)Obulus, Dirge, Ghast, A&G, Brainpan&Memory (BPM), oGraves vs Corsair, Tentacles, oSiren, Jac, Kraken, A&GI kicked off with Obulus, and Greg pulled him towards Corsair with Lure from Siren. I didn’t really want Obulus dead so had to activate him next to run away. Obulus ended up in 3” of Siren so he Puppet Mastered her into my lines and then ran away. Kraken moved up to protect her, but I managed to push Siren around a bit, get some crowdouts and dodge Memory into her and do some damage. Next turn I got the takeout on Siren and a nonsense A&G goal, but he managed a takeout (maybe Graves?). At some point I got another goal, and he took out Avarisse and Greede to make it 10-6. I was really low on clock at this stage, but I just needed one more takeout. Kraken seemed the easiest option so I kept hitting him. I lost 4 clock points, Graves took Kraken to 2 to make it 10-11. End of turn, and it was all over for me - but then we remembered bleed damage on Kraken.12-11 WIN (2 goals, 2 takeouts vs 0 goals, 3 takeouts, 5 clockouts)R3 vs Henry (Fish)Obulus, Dirge, Ghast, A&G, BPM, oGraves vs Corsair, Tentacles, vSiren, Greyscales, Gutter, HagI thought BPM worked well in the first game against Corsair so stuck with them, mainly for the extra crowdout / momentous damage. I kicked off with Obulus and he moved the ball around a bit by snapping / unsnapping because of Puppet Master. Ghast and Graves moved up staying just out of walk + Harpoon of Corsair, but Hag dodged Corsair up so that he could drag Graves and start setting up for Gutter. He might have overextended a bit here - Obulus dragged him in and I was able to hit Corsair with Greede and Memory, generating plenty of momentum. Next turn Memory was hitting Corsair with 5 crowdouts to finish him off. I think once Corsair was dead there just weren’t enough damage dealers for the Fish. Some unlucky dice (lucky for me!) meant Graves took more to kill than he should have done, buying a bit of time. I think the number of crowdouts I had available compensated a bit for (vet) Siren’s Dread Gaze, and I was able to set up a kill on Gutter for 4-2 after fortunately winning an even initiative roll. A&G got a nonsense goal scooping up an unsnapped ball for 8-2, but Avarisse died to a returning Corsair.Obulus got the takeout on vSiren - being able to dodge in with Shadowlike then walk after Escaping Fate has been triggered is very helpful - then a Dirge Sic ‘Em charge put Singled Out on Hag for Memory to finish (as the puppet’s attacks get round Fear).12-4 WIN (1 goal, 4 takeouts vs 0 goals, 2 takeouts)R4 vs James (Masons)Obulus, Dirge, Ghast, A&G, Casket, oGraves vs Hammer, Wrecker, Brick, Granite, Tower, vHarmonyObulus kicked off again, and he was careful of Puppet Master, just moving the ball around by unsnapping then tooling up Hammer. It looked like he was setting up for Hammer to jog then dodge into Obulus with a pass, and that didn’t seem ideal at +2 DMG so I just Puppet Mastered Hammer backwards. Unfortunately I’d still left him in sprint + dodge range, so Hammer KD Obulus and did 6 DMG. Trying to save Obulus I sent Greede into Hammer to generate momentum, but just ended up with a KD damaged Greede.Turn 2 Hammer managed to finish off both Obulus and Greede to make it 0-4. This was not ideal. I think if Hammer had just run away here it could have all been over, but he moved to engage Avarisse to set up for the next turn. Avarisse, Graves and Ghast were able to push Hammer towards Casket and do some good damage so that Hammer would be on 2HP after bleed. vHarmony was just out of range on a goal run, even with dodges off Avarisse, but I was 2 down on the roll.My dice saved me - I won the roll and I could go with Casket, putting Heavy Burden on Granite, Casket Timing Hammer and dropping a Ghostly Visage to protect against Brick. vHarmony scored and I just kicked it into space to where Obulus had returned. Ghast, Graves and Avarisse spent a turn denying Granite anything by pushing her away, and doing some damage on Granite and Brick.The next turn I got the takeout on Brick and left Granite low, but vHarmony got the takeout on returned Greede to make it 6-10. I still had the Obulus legendary so he was able to move up towards Granite with the ball and guarantee the roll-off. Obulus finished Granite off, sprinted to goal range and scored.12-10 WIN (1 goal, 3 takeouts vs 1 goal, 3 takeouts)Things looked pretty grim there for a bit!R5 vs Aaron (Engineers)Obulus, Dirge, Ghast, A&G, Casket, oGraves vs Pin Vice, Mother, Harry, Ratchet, Hoist, VelocityObulus, as always, kicked off. Ratchet and Hoist lobbed some Blast Earths at him and Pin Vice looked to be setting up for a Legendary goal run. I used Obulus’ Legendary, stole the ball from Pin Vice, dodged away and dropped it for A&G to collect. Pin Vice couldn’t do anything so I was able to get the standard nonsense A&G goal. The ball went out to Velocity. I lost the roll, but he went with Mother first into Greede. Obulus went for another goal run, dodging round Mother and using Puppet Master to get the ball off Velocity and dodge into Tap-In range. Then he missed so badly the ball went off the pitch, luckily dropping onto Ghast.Pin Vice got the takeout on Greede and did plenty of damage to Avarisse, taking damage from Deletion. Avarisse got taken out too, but I was able to nearly kill Pin Vice and Harry and then Casket Time Harry. 8-4. Pin Vice ran away but was on 3HP with Reanimate triggered, so Graves sprint after and finish her. Pin Vice returned to kill Graves in revenge and Hoist got a goal, but Obulus and Ghast combined to kill Ratchet.12-10 WIN (1 goal, 3 takeouts vs 1 goal, 3 takeouts) Thanks to all my opponents for some great games!
  7. orange teams

    I finally got my morticians finished in time for Vengeance this weekend. Still need a 10th player now, and may as well paint up the rest, but here's a team shot.
  8. Paper Dolls

    I'm planning on doing paper dolls for all the s3 stuff, I've just been a bit busy recently. If nobody else does them I'll do them in a couple of weeks (painting for Vengeance is the priority until then...)
  9. Tag Along can't be used on the kick off as it's once per turn (see collected clarifications) so this should be the same.
  10. What's your S3 NPE?

    You can only get Concussion of a quarter of the time vs Vitriol on a standard attack so it's not really that likely to strip 2 off (and it's effectively 2 inf to deny 2 inf due to the boar tax).
  11. Windle, the Indolent Slacker

    From the S3 contents page there definitely seem to be 10 farmers and a second mascot.
  12. The Sanchex Cup 2!

    In a tournament you can't get more than 12VPs - from the Regional Cup rules:
  13. No, movement modifiers are applied to the stat itself, as discussed in this thread: I don't really see how TAC is different - I feel applicable bonuses & penalties refers to stuff like crowding out. There's no requirement to take the stats using Family so there wouldn't be any problem with that situation. As far as I can see this old post is the only ruling on Family?
  14. I don't think the ruling in the clarification thread is correct - wasn't this the most recent ruling?